Tag: rates

Lock Watch for the Week of 3/11/2019

~ Rob Spinosa ~ Leave a comment

Volatility-O-Meter:

A lot of key reports this week and on the heels of the real dud of a jobs number Friday. Could this be an inflection point? We’ll see. Oh, and let’s not forget auctions too.

Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):

  • Mon, 3/11:   Retail Sales (5:30am), Business Inventories (7am), 3-Yr Note Auction (10am).
  • Tues, 3/12:   CPI (5:30am), 10-Yr Note Auction (10am).
  • Weds, 3/13:   Durable Goods and PPI (5:30am), Construction Spending (7am), 30-Yr Bond Auction (10am).
  • Thurs, 3/14:  Jobless Claims and Import/Export Prices (5:30am), New Home Sales (7am). Fed Balance Sheet (1:30pm).
  • Fri, 3/15:    Empire State Mfg Survey (5:30am), Industrial Production (6:15am), Consumer Sentiment and JOLTS (7am).

10-Year Treasury History

  • 2.64%   Market Open
  • 2.74%   One Week Ago
  • 2.63%   One Month Ago
  • 2.87%   One Year Ago

(Need a rate quote for your specific scenario? Click anywhere on this link.)

Marin Ultra Challenge 50K

The weather forecast called for 100% chance of rain. High of 52F, low of 39. A great day to tackle another ultramarathon and my second 50K (31 miles in name, closer to 29 by way of my Garmin), right? The Inside Trail Marin Ultra Challenge started at 6:30am at my favorite House of Horrors, Rodeo Beach. This time, the course would be different than last month’s Coastal Trails 50K, but employ many of the same trails, ascents and descents. Combined again with the muddy conditions, it was shaping up to be one of those days where you would be wise to live by the motto, “Don’t think, just do.”

So up we climbed out of the staging area. Oh, and lest I not be grateful, it was not pouring rain while we waited to get underway. The first miles of an ultra should always be uneventful and traversing Gerbode Valley, I kept my pace in check and focused on not repeating the epic fade that defined last month’s race. At the first aid station, some 5 miles in at Conzelman, I felt zero strain. I pressed on to the Tennessee Valley aid station at mile 10 using the same cautious, at times even absurdly slow, approach. The climb out of Tennessee and down to Pirate’s Cove was also very conservative and the trail here was treacherously slippery. Too early to make mistakes, fall or otherwise get discouraged. As the skies opened I was mostly thinking about my son’s Junior Warriors basketball that I would be missing, and that would be getting underway shortly.

Out of the Cove, we climbed up to the ridge above Muir Beach and then descended to the aid station there. At this point, none of us were protecting our feet any longer. There were too many puddles, too few firm patches of trail and one simply resigns to having their feet soaked. At Muir, we started an out/back on Dias Ridge and were greeted with the day’s worst weather; cold, dark, rainy, ridiculous.

Returning to the Muir Beach aid station, my mindset shifted to the two key climbs required to get me home. First, to ascend out of Muir valley, then once back in Tennessee, to go up and out of there, gain Hill 88 and downhill to the finish. It would work out to be almost another two hours of running and despite the mud at Green Gulch, there was some promise of sun, and it was a promise fulfilled upon gaining the top of the last ridge.

At about this point, I realized I might make a time goal that seemed improbable at the start but within the grasp of reality assuming a strong push and no mistakes. That was a mixed blessing because now I had to work hard and not let up. I would have much rather cruised home while taking in the sweeping coastal vista, but instead I downed another caffeinated energy gel and gave it a go.

I learned a lot last month about what not to do in a 50K. I can be pretty hard-headed, but since I don’t have time to train very much and because I’m playing with fire every time I suit up to run long distance these days, I figured it was a safe bet to apply those new skills and, for the most part, it worked. I felt pretty good upon finishing, got into dry clothes and hung around to cheer others in. Oh, and though still brisk at the beach, the sun smiled and capped a really solid day in the saddle. Next stop, twice the distance, but that’s a bit off and not something to think about right now.

It keeps you runnin’,

 

Robert J. Spinosa
Vice President of Mortgage Lending
Guaranteed Rate
NMLS: 22343
Cell/Text: 415-367-5959
rob.spinosa@rate.com

Marin Office: 324 Sir Francis Drake Blvd., San Anselmo, CA 94960
Berkeley Office: 1400 Shattuck Ave., Suite 1, Berkeley, CA 94709

*The views and opinions expressed on this site about work-related matters are my own, have not been reviewed or approved by Guaranteed Rate and do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Guaranteed Rate. In no way do I commit Guaranteed Rate to any position on any matter or issue without the express prior written consent of Guaranteed Rate’s Human Resources Department.

Guaranteed Rate. Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee NMLS License #2611 3940 N. Ravenswood Chicago, IL 60613 – (866) 934-7283

I Got Another Rate Quote. Can You Beat It?

~ Rob Spinosa ~ Leave a comment

Talk may be cheap, but money is not. And you can bet your bottom dollar that most consumers seeking to get a mortgage will shop for the best rate quotes through any number of ways; their local bank, the internet, etc. We will often get requests to match or beat rate quotes as a result. Instead of publishing rates and promising that we’re the cheapest and best source for all rate shoppers, which is something that is frowned upon by the regulators of our industry, I instead want to shed some light on some of the governing principles that guide rate quotes from any and all lending sources. Below are three constants that apply in each case and to all shoppers for all programs.

[Too lazy to read the rest? Watch the rockin’ video below for all the information covered in this blog!]

Follow the Regs

With the passage of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Financial Reform Act, the mortgage industry became subjected to the ‘anti-steering provision’ which prevents a mortgage loan originator from earning any more or less in commission depending on the rate charged to the consumer. In short, whether we provide you with a 3%, a 4% or a 5% rate, our compensation is the same. We have no incentive to put you into a program with a higher rate. In fact, you could argue that we have an incentive not to do this. After all, lower rates give an edge in winning rate competition and they bestow more qualifying power on the borrower. But there is an ugly side to the anti-steering provision — the lender’s inability to leverage their compensation to be more competitive. For example, prior to Dodd-Frank, originators had flexibility with their commission. If they needed to cut it in order to win a deal, they could. But now, our regulators say that if we had the ability to charge less to Consumer A, who does a lot of homework and negotiates strongly, what would prevent us from raising our compensation on unsuspecting Consumer B? The ability for us to negotiate is largely a thing of the past. Sure, we can submit for price exceptions on occasion, but they are just that — the exception. And the rule severely limits a lender’s ability to match or beat.

Time Is of the Essence

In real estate, we write “time is of the essence” into our contracts and this philosophy holds true with rates too. Just like the stock and bond markets, rates fluctuate every day and sometimes even multiple times when the markets are especially volatile. So it is vitally important that consumers shop for rates on the same day. A common scenario we see will have a borrower apply for a home loan in, say, January. Maybe they will get all the way to the altar with a pre-approval but then not find a property. During that process, the lender likely quotes a specific rate. Now, fast forward a few months and the borrower is working with a different lender and gets a quote that is higher or lower. This does not necessarily mean that the second lender’s rates are organically any better or worse. It might simply mean that the market has changed during the interim. So, collect your rate quotes on the same day if you’re comparing multiple sources. It may be time-consuming but it’s the only way you can truly be accurate.

The WebMD Syndrome

Lastly, when pitting one source of rates against another, make sure they’re all on equal footing in terms of the depth of the quote. Look at it this way. If you wake up one morning with a rash, you can research your symptoms online and get an idea of your condition. Or you can actually visit your doctor who will do a physical exam, perhaps blood work and then give you a diagnosis. Now you have a choice, you can follow the instruction of the doctor or of the internet. You see where I’m going with this. So too in the field of rate quotes, if you have had a lender pull your credit, review your complete application and provide terms for your loan, placing this on equal footing with an online quote could be risky. Rate quotes for jumbo mortgages are most sensitive to the finer qualifying attributes of the applicant and for this reason, I highly advise those in the jumbo market to get a complete credit approval prior to comparing rates.

I have always believed that an educated and informed consumer is our best client. And this applies to rate shopping as well. I similarly feel we always have a very strong chance of earning business based on available rates so long as quotes are on a level playing field, and getting the shopping public up to speed on this is something I’m very happy to do. If we can help you with your next home mortgage, let me know!

No one wants to be defeated, 

 

Robert J. Spinosa
Vice President of Mortgage Lending
Guaranteed Rate
NMLS: 22343
Cell/Text: 415-367-5959
rob.spinosa@rate.com

Marin Office: 324 Sir Francis Drake Blvd., San Anselmo, CA 94960
Berkeley Office: 1400 Shattuck Ave., Suite 1, Berkeley, CA 94709

*The views and opinions expressed on this site about work-related matters are my own, have not been reviewed or approved by Guaranteed Rate and do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Guaranteed Rate. In no way do I commit Guaranteed Rate to any position on any matter or issue without the express prior written consent of Guaranteed Rate’s Human Resources Department.

Guaranteed Rate. Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee NMLS License #2611 3940 N. Ravenswood Chicago, IL 60613 – (866) 934-7283

Lock Watch for the Week of 2/11/2019

~ Rob Spinosa ~ Leave a comment

Volatility-O-Meter:

Amid a backdrop of economic slowdown abroad, the US kicks off the week quietly but then things ought to heat up. And let’s not forget the threat of another government shutdown (Nightmare on Elm St. Part II).

Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):

  • Mon, 2/11:   Quiet.
  • Tues, 2/12:   JOLTS (7am).
  • Weds, 2/13:   CPI (5:30am). Treasury Budget (11am).
  • Thurs, 2/14:  Jobless Claims, PPI, Retail Sales (5:30am). Business Inventories (10am).
  • Fri, 2/15:    Empire State Mfg Survey and Import/Export Prices (5:30am). Consumer Sentiment (7am).

10-Year Treasury History

  • 2.66%   Market Open
  • 2.72%   One Week Ago
  • 2.71%   One Month Ago
  • 2.86%   One Year Ago

Coastal Trails Golden Gate 50K

On Saturday I ran my first “ultramarathon.” The Coastal Trails Golden Gate 50K (that’s 31 miles for us non-metric folk and 33.6 miles for us looking-at-my-Garmin-Fenix5-running-watch-stats folks) was, to cut to the ‘being chased’, a tale of suffering the likes of which I have not felt in some time. Even though I would consider myself a “seasoned” endurance athlete as a result of 14 Ironman triathlon finishes and countless other long distance competitions, not much could have prepared me for the exquisite combination of distance, climbs and descents, cold rain and mud that I experienced on this glorious day. Now, granted, hardcore ultramarathoners will consider my journey here, and 50K itself, a dance among the daffodils, but when career and parenting conspire to allow you to run only 15 to 20 miles a week in training, giving a fat 30 miles a go elevates the term ‘Weekend Warrior’ to a whole ‘nother level.

Anyway, let’s get dirty. The race started at Rodeo Beach and despite the rainy forecast, the day could only muster breaking clear and cold. From sea level, there is nowhere to go but up and that’s exactly what we did, climbing the Coastal Trail past Battery Townsley and up over the ridge to then descend into Tennessee Valley — another awesome place for a nice hike. But again, today was not that day. From TV, we headed up the Fox Trail and then descended into the Pirate’s Cove loop, which is Marin coastal scenery at its best. The weather held nicely and the muddy, uneven steps out of the loop were manageable. By the time we were back on the valley floor we were about 10 miles into our day and ready to tackle the long, steady Marincello ascent towards Wolfback Ridge. I was hanging in on the descent to the Golden Gate Bridge but somewhere along the subsequent climb alongside Conzelman Road I started to feel the fatigue of 16+ miles setting in. But still, not even halfway there.

The Persians have a saying, “The drowning man is not disturbed by the rain,” and oh, did this prove to be true. On the long descent back to Rodeo Beach, the rain set in, the skies grew dark and it got cold. The two, short and steep insulting stretches along the Coastal Trail at the bottom of the descent were mud-choked runnels of Slip-and-Slide fun. And so it was that I returned to the start area again and headed back up the hill for loop two. But not after a very kind volunteer helped me pull a fleece hat out of my running vest and send me off with words of encouragement. One thing I learned while racing long ago? Don’t linger at transition points that come through any start/finish area. The temptation to bail is too great and it makes succumbing to such temptation much easier. In fact, don’t even look at the festivities. Keep moving.

I somehow managed to top out without too much pain. I even descended consistently and with gratitude, as for this loop we did not need to retrace the Pirate’s Cove section. Instead, we turned right back up Marincello and repeated the half marathon loop. It was on that descent that I realized my training-deficient legs had the endurance to run only about 24 miles and that the remainder of this day, if I was to complete it, would be a mixed bag of hiking the ascents quickly, running downhill gingerly on my shattered quads and then playing a game of mental poker comprised of the phantasmogoric next hands of psychological milestones I could soon reach before throwing in the proverbial sponge.

Just shy of 6 hours, I brought her in. My wife and son were there in the rain to greet me. Despite the self-inflicted hardships and what the author of this post might otherwise have you believe, this was a profoundly moving experience. And it was also an important step on the path to a larger goal. Like most such endeavors, it didn’t go exactly to plan and it was way bigger than myself. Part of what excites me now is the prospect of figuring out how to do it better. What seems daunting at this moment, will be the skill and ability I will possess later. And I will be better for having stuck with it.

Get there when you get there,

 

Robert J. Spinosa
Vice President of Mortgage Lending
Guaranteed Rate
NMLS: 22343
Cell/Text: 415-367-5959
rob.spinosa@rate.com

Marin Office: 324 Sir Francis Drake Blvd., San Anselmo, CA 94960
Berkeley Office: 1400 Shattuck Ave., Suite 1, Berkeley, CA 94709

*The views and opinions expressed on this site about work-related matters are my own, have not been reviewed or approved by Guaranteed Rate and do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Guaranteed Rate. In no way do I commit Guaranteed Rate to any position on any matter or issue without the express prior written consent of Guaranteed Rate’s Human Resources Department.

Guaranteed Rate. Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee NMLS License #2611 3940 N. Ravenswood Chicago, IL 60613 – (866) 934-7283