Lock Watch for the Week of 3/11/2019


A lot of key reports this week and on the heels of the real dud of a jobs number Friday. Could this be an inflection point? We’ll see. Oh, and let’s not forget auctions too.

Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):

  • Mon, 3/11:   Retail Sales (5:30am), Business Inventories (7am), 3-Yr Note Auction (10am).
  • Tues, 3/12:   CPI (5:30am), 10-Yr Note Auction (10am).
  • Weds, 3/13:   Durable Goods and PPI (5:30am), Construction Spending (7am), 30-Yr Bond Auction (10am).
  • Thurs, 3/14:  Jobless Claims and Import/Export Prices (5:30am), New Home Sales (7am). Fed Balance Sheet (1:30pm).
  • Fri, 3/15:    Empire State Mfg Survey (5:30am), Industrial Production (6:15am), Consumer Sentiment and JOLTS (7am).

10-Year Treasury History

  • 2.64%   Market Open
  • 2.74%   One Week Ago
  • 2.63%   One Month Ago
  • 2.87%   One Year Ago

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Marin Ultra Challenge 50K

The weather forecast called for 100% chance of rain. High of 52F, low of 39. A great day to tackle another ultramarathon and my second 50K (31 miles in name, closer to 29 by way of my Garmin), right? The Inside Trail Marin Ultra Challenge started at 6:30am at my favorite House of Horrors, Rodeo Beach. This time, the course would be different than last month’s Coastal Trails 50K, but employ many of the same trails, ascents and descents. Combined again with the muddy conditions, it was shaping up to be one of those days where you would be wise to live by the motto, “Don’t think, just do.”

So up we climbed out of the staging area. Oh, and lest I not be grateful, it was not pouring rain while we waited to get underway. The first miles of an ultra should always be uneventful and traversing Gerbode Valley, I kept my pace in check and focused on not repeating the epic fade that defined last month’s race. At the first aid station, some 5 miles in at Conzelman, I felt zero strain. I pressed on to the Tennessee Valley aid station at mile 10 using the same cautious, at times even absurdly slow, approach. The climb out of Tennessee and down to Pirate’s Cove was also very conservative and the trail here was treacherously slippery. Too early to make mistakes, fall or otherwise get discouraged. As the skies opened I was mostly thinking about my son’s Junior Warriors basketball that I would be missing, and that would be getting underway shortly.

Out of the Cove, we climbed up to the ridge above Muir Beach and then descended to the aid station there. At this point, none of us were protecting our feet any longer. There were too many puddles, too few firm patches of trail and one simply resigns to having their feet soaked. At Muir, we started an out/back on Dias Ridge and were greeted with the day’s worst weather; cold, dark, rainy, ridiculous.

Returning to the Muir Beach aid station, my mindset shifted to the two key climbs required to get me home. First, to ascend out of Muir valley, then once back in Tennessee, to go up and out of there, gain Hill 88 and downhill to the finish. It would work out to be almost another two hours of running and despite the mud at Green Gulch, there was some promise of sun, and it was a promise fulfilled upon gaining the top of the last ridge.

At about this point, I realized I might make a time goal that seemed improbable at the start but within the grasp of reality assuming a strong push and no mistakes. That was a mixed blessing because now I had to work hard and not let up. I would have much rather cruised home while taking in the sweeping coastal vista, but instead I downed another caffeinated energy gel and gave it a go.

I learned a lot last month about what not to do in a 50K. I can be pretty hard-headed, but since I don’t have time to train very much and because I’m playing with fire every time I suit up to run long distance these days, I figured it was a safe bet to apply those new skills and, for the most part, it worked. I felt pretty good upon finishing, got into dry clothes and hung around to cheer others in. Oh, and though still brisk at the beach, the sun smiled and capped a really solid day in the saddle. Next stop, twice the distance, but that’s a bit off and not something to think about right now.

It keeps you runnin’,


Robert J. Spinosa
Vice President of Mortgage Lending
Guaranteed Rate
NMLS: 22343
Cell/Text: 415-367-5959

Marin Office: 324 Sir Francis Drake Blvd., San Anselmo, CA 94960
Berkeley Office: 1400 Shattuck Ave., Suite 1, Berkeley, CA 94709

*The views and opinions expressed on this site about work-related matters are my own, have not been reviewed or approved by Guaranteed Rate and do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Guaranteed Rate. In no way do I commit Guaranteed Rate to any position on any matter or issue without the express prior written consent of Guaranteed Rate’s Human Resources Department.

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